For years, the Auburn Tigers football have often gauged success less by their own accomplishments and more by the shortcomings of Alabama Crimson Tide football. Much of that chatter is easy to dismiss, but during the long and often uneventful college football offseason, speculation tends to fill the void—sometimes drifting into far-fetched territory.
Brad Crawford of CBS Sports isn’t known for hot takes, and with little concrete news to work with, projecting outcomes becomes part of the conversation. Using a preseason Top 25 released in January, he outlined both best-case and worst-case scenarios for each team.
That early ranking featured nine SEC programs: Texas (No. 2), Georgia (No. 3), Texas A&M (No. 6), Oklahoma (No. 10), LSU (No. 14), Alabama (No. 15), Missouri (No. 17), Ole Miss (No. 20), and South Carolina (No. 25). Alabama’s schedule includes four of those teams—South Carolina, Georgia, Texas A&M, and LSU making for a challenging slate.
In Crawford’s optimistic projections, Texas and Georgia finish undefeated at 12-0, while Alabama, LSU, and Ole Miss land at 11-1. Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and South Carolina are pegged at 10-2, with Missouri at 9-3.
However, it’s the downside projections that have caught Auburn fans’ attention. Crawford sees potential 8-4 finishes for Texas, Georgia, and LSU, while Alabama, along with Texas A&M and Ole Miss, could slip to 7-5. Missouri is projected at 5-7, and South Carolina at 4-8.
Explaining Alabama’s worst-case outlook, Crawford pointed to several losable games, noting that South Carolina has pushed them in recent seasons, while matchups against Georgia, Tennessee, Texas A&M, LSU, Auburn, and even a road trip to Vanderbilt present real challenges.
Reacting to that outlook, Andrew Hughes suggested that doubts around Alabama are already widespread, arguing there are only so many ways to say the Crimson Tide could struggle before the season even begins. He also questioned the notion that Auburn would be a serious threat on the road in the Iron Bowl, pointing out that while elite teams and difficult road environments pose obvious risks, expecting an upset in Tuscaloosa may be a stretch.
The underlying irony for Auburn is hard to ignore: even if the Tigers were to lose another Iron Bowl, a 2026 season where Alabama stumbles to 7-5 might still be viewed as a success in Auburn circles.
